Rookie Draft Series 2026 – Quarterback Primer

By: Chris Kerr (@bustermartin)

Kyle Trask, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Wil Levis, Hendon Hooker, Jake Haener, Stetson Bennett, Aidan O’Connell, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Tyler Shough and Dillon Gabriel.

What do they have in common?

This is a list of guys I wouldn’t want to arm-wrestle.   

Guys I wouldn’t want to face at Powerslap 20.

Guys who went to homecoming with prettier girls than I did.  

Guys who definitely drive nicer cars than I do.  

Since 2021, these are the players who were at least 23 years old, and selected in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.

But other than Daniels (who has his own durability concerns) and Bo Nix (who is sitting between QB 12 and 14 over the past two seasons), how many of those guys are you willing to put in the 1 or 2 spot of your Superflex starting lineup?  Sure, you enjoyed Shough’s second half of 2025, but you would feel much more comfortable if he was your white knight in the three spot than a starter.

This year, there are only 5 quarterbacks consistently selected in Superflex rookie three-round mocks: Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar and Carson Beck.  Of this group, only Mendoza and Allar will be under 23 years of age on Draft Day. 

So Easy a Caveman Could Do It

If you have the 1.02 pick in Superflex (based on metrics, attitude, statistics and position-scarcity), you should select Fernando Mendoza.  The argument for Love at 1.01 is a strong one, and understandably, considered by most to be obvious.  However, if I am in a complete rebuild in Superflex with any running back depth at all, I am taking Mendoza or at least trading back one spot from the 1.01 and still landing him but with some bonus picks.   

That’s All She Wrote

Now, the real work begins.  And for me, that 23-year-old threshold is a HUGE factor when making rookie draft picks. 

In 2021 and 2022, coaches clearly faded players that were in this group, and those who were selected struggled mightily other than Kenny Pickett.  In fact, the other quarterbacks in this group totaled only 9 NFL starts.  As for Pickett, he benefitted from entering after the Roethlisberger era to take on the ghost of Mitch Trubisky, and was carried in his second year by a back-to-form Steelers defense with TJ Watt at the helm.

In 2023, Vrabel and McDaniels were fired after whiffing on Wil Levis and Aidan O’Connell, and the rest of the group were drafted to sit in the third spot on each of their respective rosters. 

In 2024, we did see the Broncos and Commanders step outside the box and choose quarterbacks in this group, but Sean Payton and Dan Quinn each have a Super Bowl win, and much longer leashes than most NFL coaches who need a starter to save their job.  

With the 2026 coaching carousel in full motion, do you think coaches like Aaron Glenn, Mike McCarthy and Mike LaFleur in their new roles will put their necks on the line to draft players in this group?  Together, their current quarterbacks are 110 years old.  (That’s not an exaggeration.)  So these coaches will be looking for franchise quarterbacks soon, but they are way more likely to wait for the stallions in the 2027 class before taking such a risk.  Therefore, at their current mock draft positions, I am not drafting Ty Simpson (currently pick 13), Garrett Nussmeier (currently pick 22) or Carson Beck (currently pick 36).  Remember, a month ago, analysts were consistently projecting the second quarterback in this class to fall to Round 2.   

What about Drew Allar?  

The guy’s built like Josh Allen… 

with Joe Flacco’s arm… 

and Burrow-level ball security… 

BUT his footwork?  It’s Bambi on Ice.   

Coming off an ankle fracture that ended his senior season at Penn State, chances of Allar getting an opportunity at a starting job with two HUGE left feet are slim to none. 

While Allar is the only other top QB prospect who is 22 and the upside is still real, the floor is just harder to ignore.

At this point, betting on Allar is less about what he is, and more about whether a staff believes they can fix his footwork before it becomes the defining trait of his game.  

WWBD – What Would Buster Do?

This is probably my hottest of takes.  In a year that I would be surprised to see any quarterback not named Mendoza or Simpson selected in the first two rounds of 1 QB rookie drafts, I believe that the same should be true in Superflex leagues.  This year, I am not drafting any quarterback other than Mendoza, and therefore, I am diligently reading my league threads to find guys who are willing to send their DNA off to “23” and me.  I will be targeting managers who show interest particularly in Simpson, packaging my early to mid-second round picks with an rb3 or wr4 to trade up to Malik Willis, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones or even Kyler Murray.