The Case for the Number 5 Receiver

Written By – Chris Kerr (@bustermartin)

Josh Allen… Bijan Robinson… Lamar Jackson… Jahmyr Gibbs… Drake Maye… Puka Nacua… Ja’marr Chase… Jaxon Smith-Njigba… Joe Burrow… Amon-Ra St. Brown…

Pick 11 is on the clock.

It’s your pick, and you were hoping any nine of those ten players dropped. You promised yourself that you were not going to begin a ½ PPR Superflex with a running back again unless it was one of the top two—especially when you’re starting three wide receivers. A yet-to-be-proven Jeanty, and a tanking Miami offense around Achane, reinforce your instincts. The top four quarterbacks are gone and it’s not TE premium.

You’re going receiver.

How’d You Get Here?

You routed through Sleeper dynasty paid startups for an hour, cursing people who posted their orphans in the startup thread, before landing on a 12-teamer with a four-hour clock. At pick 11, you realize you were vindicated in your choice of four hours. The consensus Tier 1 is gone. This is not a two-minute decision.

You have five reasonable options in this startup – Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Drake London, CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson.

What do you do?

There Goes the Naberhood

In 2025, while playing in his fourth game against the porous defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, Malik Nabers tore his ACL. In one of his three prior starts, he put up a top-10 performance on the season with 167 yards against the Cowboys, in his other two games, he averaged a Khalil Shakir-esque 8 points per game. By the way, that Cowboys defense that Nabers torched—you remember it right? It was the crater left in the wake of Micah Parsons’ departure to Green Bay.

While an ankle injury and concussion did not stymie Nabers in 2024, beat reporters continually lamented that he remained plagued by what he described as a nagging “mosquito bite” from his days at LSU. In the preseason last year, Malik appeared on the Kay Adams show talking about a turf toe injury that continued to trouble him years later.

Fantasy managers might be wise to consider that this combination of injuries could add up—especially when your game relies on explosive starts and violent cuts. He has elite explosive metrics, and his rookie campaign was a masterclass. But with the other options available, Nabers is high-risk, high-reward.

And this is why you won’t be drafting Nabers here.

You quickly move on, because you are more Days of Thunder than The Fast and the Furious.

Say It Ain’t So, Nico

Nico Collins boasted the second-most efficient yards per catch average (15.7) of any wide receiver with over 50 catches. The most efficient player? Jameson Williams. Meanwhile, Nico’s total receptions (71) were outside the top 20 in 2025. This combination screams regression. High efficiency plus low volume is a recipe for mediocrity.

When Nico entered the NFL, he was compared to all-time NBA jump-ball great Andre Drummond. Many thought he would go the way of Michael Crabtree, with a very particular skill set. However, Nico proved to be elite when given the opportunity. Therein lies the rub.

The Texans released oft-injured Joe Mixon and brought in David Montgomery to lead their running back room. In four of Montgomery’s seven seasons, he has had over 300 receiving yards—which would have placed him in the top 12 among running backs last year. Target vulture Dalton Schultz signed a contract extension that will last through the 2027 season, and his target percentage topped 22% in 2025. With the return of whatever version of Tank Dell we get, and another year for Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to learn the system, you have to imagine at least modest target competition increases. But really—do you want to create your foundation around the WR1 for C.J. Stroud?

No chance.

Three solid options left.

“The Drake is Good!” – Seinfeld

You knew right away that you might date Nabers or Nico in redraft, but you weren’t going to marry either of them in dynasty.

Drake was the girl you dated in college who analytically was the right fit. Hell, she’s already had her own business for four years and she’s only 24. The former top-10 draft pick has elite metrics in targets per route run and contested catches, not to mention, he’s open more than Seven-Eleven.

It is going to happen for him at some point. London’s breakout has been suppressed by receiver-room wrecking ball Arthur Smith, and Raheem Morris—who never fully developed London even after unlocking some of Julio Jones’ best seasons as his wide receiver coach. Enter two-time “Coach of the Year,” Kevin Stefanski. While he has a reputation for struggling to connect at times with his players, he is known for scheme design and overall offensive prowess.

If London had even a top-20 quarterback next year, you would seriously be considering him, but the Falcons have managed to fumble through a barrage of quarterbacks who consistently land outside even the top 30 during London’s tenure. A season of Tuas/Penix reminds you that this organization still has no idea what it is doing.

In the end- NO DRAKE FOR YOU!

It’s OK though, there’s 2 more options left.

A CeeDee Situation

This one gets clearer the more you look at the numbers. The Cowboys franchised Pickens for 2026, and if this were the Le’Veon Bell era, you would be crossing your fingers for a holdout, but not in 2025. At best, CeeDee’s overall value would be maximized by a tag-and-trade scenario—which the Cowboys do not seem eager to pursue.

Outside of the touchdown discrepancy (which wasn’t merely due to Lamb playing three fewer games), Lamb still held a WR1 role through 14 games. The problem is—so did Pickens. CeeDee had 6 games with over 100 yards. Pickens had 5, he was 15th in fantasy points per game in Half-PPR, Pickens was 6th. Historically, CeeDee’s numbers over his career are clearly higher. But as a Cowboy, it is now a true 1A/1B situation—and based on last year, it is closer than you realized.

You cannot take CeeDee over Jefferson.

And then there was 1.

The Jefferson Memorial

Final Jeopardy, here is your clue:

Cousins. Mannion. Mullens. Dobbs. Hall. Darnold.

Who are quarterbacks who threw to Justin Jefferson prior to 2025?

Justin Jefferson returns to form (top 3) in 2026. In 2023 and 2024 (after Cousins’ ACL tear and release), Jefferson maintained his dominance, with his numbers mirroring what he did with Cousins on a per-game basis, and now he gets Kyler.

While 2025 did nothing to bolster Kevin O’Connell’s “offensive guru” status, he is known for his fast-paced, aggressive style—which could unlock a new level for JJ. Kyler will run more than any other quarterback Jefferson has played with, but he is also an agent of chaos. That chaos lends itself to Jefferson’s strengths—working back to the ball, changing pace, and attacking deep targets. Kyler’s style will lead to more explosive plays rather than purely timing-based ones. O’Connell’s scheme can now better exploit Jefferson’s late hands and elite jump-ball ability. Also, let’s not forget Hockenson is one year older and declining, meanwhile Jefferson has already shown he can produce elite numbers, even when Addison was scoring 9–10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons.

On paper, it might look crowded but you see what no one else does. Boldly you grab your phone and with all the confidence in the world, you draft Jefferson at pick 11! Your new cornerstone wide receiver for the next three to four years.

Wait! What is this trade offer…………..