Trade Psychology 101

By Chris Kerr (@bustermartin)

While most avid fantasy managers agree that their favorite day of the year involves a few beers, laptops and smack talk in their most competitive league, consistently the next best thing is the morning you wake up to a trade acceptance notification.

These days, winning trade offers are the bad beat poker stories of ten years ago.

Today, we are going to take a deep dive into the dynamics of trading and the psychology behind it.

Let’s take an intimate look into the psychopathy of that manager in your league who is known to consistently make winning trades and how they get there.

First things first.

Is this a public league, your eleven best friends or does it fall somewhere in between?

When navigating fantasy leagues, what you know about your league mates can be invaluable.

Navigating the trade pool in a public league begins with analyzing the chatter.

Some managers talk smack, some are critical of others’ choices, some make a lot of unnecessary waiver moves, some are constantly asking questions.

Analyzing the people in your league is essential to learning about their “fantasy trading profile.”

And I take notes.

If you offer me a trade, I record it along with all your other offers.

I pay attention to things like how many times you have reached out on the same player or how many times you tried to add on the same player at the end of a negotiation that you don’t want me to know that you really find value in.

And later on, I am going to use that.

All of this begins with engagement.

I am Tinder Swindler of the Sleeper DMs, and I will have all kinds of conversations with you about real life, but also about your favorite players, your other dynasty teams and how you evaluate other people’s completed trades.

I understand which positions you value most, how much of a homer you are, and which players have burned you over the years.

I am writing it all down.

If you send me an offer and I counter, and you spend the next 20 minutes trying to de-value those players to me while still talking me into the trade, I know that you want them even more.

I cannot have 10, 15, 20 dynasty leagues.

I settle somewhere around 6–9, and then I go deep state, recording and analyzing everything that you are willing to share.
My draft fix is satisfied by drafting 80 to 100 best balls every off-season. That’s my “guma.”

My lady, however, is analyzing every aspect of any information you share in my dynasty leagues.
The psychology of analyzing managers’ words, trends and underlying beliefs can be addictive.

And so, if you want to get that dopamine hit, and feed off of the rest of your league whining about your trade successes in the chat, do this:
Take notes.

Setup an Excel spreadsheet, open a Word document or just grab a notebook. Start gathering information on your league mates.
Analyze it.

Are they tight?

Are they afraid to look foolish after a trade?

Are they looking to win now?

Who do they value?

Establish a persona in your league. Some roles are harder than others.

Nice guy is easy, and if I am just trying this out, it’s probably the best first wade into the pool.
Guy who doesn’t send actual trades, but starts a series of recurring conversations about trades and what they need, is another role. This is the guy who talks about trades they just made in another league and analyzes the responses. He’s the guy who tells you every win he’s experienced at the poker table.
It’s also tough to be the guy who makes too many offers in your league and not end up giving the other managers noticeable offer fatigue.
They’ll literally discuss it in the chat.

But if you know what you are doing, those managers who cannot garner counters from others and are frustrated with the lack of responses still come looking for you when they are trying to get their fix.

Look for managers who get embarrassed in the chat.

The league mocks them for their lack of engagement or trashes one of their players publicly.
Many an offer has been pulled off when someone just wants to improve their social score in the group, and you should be looking for these opportunities.
Finally, once you become a Jedi, pick one league and go full villain.
Don’t be annoying.

Great villains are hated, but still respected.

This role requires the most nuance, but garners the most intrigue.

Great villains in leagues don’t celebrate their victories in the chat.
They sit back and let others do it for them.

Being the villain does not mean burning bridges, but rather having conversations with people who can’t understand how you are pulling trades off. You want them to believe that they are the one member of the league that you are most honest with. It is fun to hate the villain, but its even more fun for them to think they are the one person who can see behind the curtain.
In the end, fantasy football is fun.

It’s the highs and the lows.

But Degen fantasy football is a whole different animal.

And there are next-level understandings to be gained through conversations and analysis that can give you the ultimate advantage. The information is there, you just have to learn how to weaponize it against your league mates.